Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 4.699635 5.562165 6.517157 7.649943 8.953807 10.404299 12.136711
2025-05-25 3.133968 4.215548 5.549519 7.301977 9.528065 12.244548 15.791288
2025-06-01 2.289949 3.441892 4.999855 7.228596 10.296373 14.326218 19.966603
2025-06-08 1.736466 2.881232 4.560103 7.144576 10.951366 16.266725 24.140283
2025-06-15 1.463927 2.644572 4.499376 7.534959 12.261909 19.195971 29.942604
2025-06-22 1.192668 2.337168 4.256121 7.581056 13.029839 21.388434 34.878994
2025-06-29 0.979081 2.072455 4.021059 7.580177 13.690779 23.450273 39.782343
2025-07-06 0.808936 1.843883 3.798439 7.549270 14.272687 25.414791 44.683200
2025-07-13 0.752883 1.823601 3.943261 8.175645 16.026653 29.421210 53.187136
2025-07-20 0.664841 1.715702 3.899892 8.441872 17.164764 32.488075 60.381907
2025-07-27 0.596078 1.633540 3.890912 8.765808 18.432449 35.873486 68.370336
2025-08-03 0.511538 1.494054 3.737170 8.775300 19.100354 38.245225 74.770806
2025-08-10 0.415775 1.305437 3.449365 8.479628 19.169526 39.591222 79.566216
2025-08-17 0.330193 1.119099 3.130738 8.068419 18.958265 40.400951 83.474184
2025-08-24 0.277373 1.007968 2.968328 7.977690 19.393669 42.476094 89.898894
2025-08-31 0.233271 0.908854 2.815261 7.882270 19.802241 44.526161 96.427098
2025-09-07 0.216834 0.892366 2.874895 8.306651 21.399109 49.086748 108.164172
2025-09-14 0.188664 0.827649 2.789899 8.356404 22.149818 51.966584 116.764809
2025-09-21 0.162979 0.762947 2.691426 8.355268 22.779216 54.638821 125.131103
2025-09-28 0.140170 0.700788 2.587143 8.321513 23.324280 57.170035 133.379607
2025-10-05 0.138022 0.720069 2.736905 9.004035 25.683050 63.814678 150.623508
2025-10-12 0.126456 0.696484 2.746328 9.293970 27.094877 68.470313 163.955008
2025-10-19 0.117253 0.680043 2.776081 9.646642 28.700549 73.674149 178.778544